The Rise and Fall of RFK Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s entry into the 2024 presidential race sparked much controversy and heated debate. The nephew of former president John F. Kennedy had previously worked as an environmental lawyer and was publically known for spreading vaccine misinformation. He sought the Democratic nomination, beginning his campaign on April 19th, 2023, but dropped out on October 9 of that same year. He continued his campaign as an independent until August 23rd, where he announced the suspension of his campaign and an endorsement of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

His political positions are an eclectic mix of liberal, conservative, and libertarian. He is critical of income inequality and billionaires and supports a national single-payer healthcare system, ; he’s also pro-gun, wants to roll back Biden-signed environmental legislation, and is in favor of restricting immigration, 

His campaign had support mainly among people who were disillusioned by both Trump and Democrat candidate Joe Biden. Younger voters in particular backed him more than any other demographic, supporting him as an alternative to the two-party system that has a chokehold on American politics. Biden passing the torch to his Vice President Kamala Harris may have had a minor impact on RFK’s support. Some RFK supporters who didn’t want Biden to run were satisfied with Harris and switched to backing her.

In the end, his campaign had no real chance of gaining much support. RFK has no political experience, was primarily known for his crusade against safe and effective vaccines, and was only riding on the Kennedy family name recognition and prestige.

What contributed to his downfall was a series of bizarre scandals surfacing. In May 2024, news outlets reported on RFK having a dead “brain worm” parasite in his head that was found in 2010. In August, RFK admitted to dumping a bear cub corpse in Central Park in 2014. In September, the story broke of RFK allegedly finding a beached whale, cutting off its head with a chainsaw, strapping it to a minivan, and driving it to an unknown location. He is currently under investigation by federal law enforcement for this. A common theme in these encounters is RFK getting involved with dead animals in some way. 

The polls tell a story of voters becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the candidate. According to pollster aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, RFK has been viewed more and more unfavorably as time passed and scandals kept emerging. RFK’s poll numbers slipped down from a high of 5.7% support among voters on August 3rd to 4.7% when he dropped out on August 23rd, which is when that data stopped being taken. 

Despite dropping out and officially endorsing Trump in the race, RFK remains on the ballot in 33 states as of September 16th. There is, technically, a nonzero chance of him winning the election. If every state he’s on the ballot voted for him, he would win with 293 electoral votes. Of course, the “RFK sweep” is just a fantasy. 

Source: CBS news

A much more relevant concern is if he will act as a spoiler to another candidate. In the current two-party system, only the Republican and Democrat candidates have any chance of winning. But if enough people vote for an independent or third-party, who otherwise would have voted for one of the two mainstream candidates, then it can swing the election. 

That may have happened in the 2000 presidential election. Al Gore won the popular vote, but George Bush won the electoral college. If not for the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader getting 2.8 million votes, Gore would likely have won key states that would have given him the necessary electoral votes. 

Will such a thing happen this year? It’s possible. Of the states he’s on the ballot, only two – Wisconsin and Michigan – are battleground states. There’s razor-thin margins between Harris and Trump, and those states could tip either way. However, it is likely that RFK’s support will only continue to dwindle and that many of his supporters will choose to vote for Harris or Trump.

RFK’s bizarre adventure as a candidate is over, but his political career may be just beginning. He actively campaigns and speaks for Trump. Who knows what the future may hold for RFK.

Source: Getty Images